Top world’s goalkeepers ranking : Courtois not first, Oblak absent from the list

The Football Observatory CIES has released its latest ranking of the world’s best goalkeepers, and the results have surprised many football analysts and fans alike. Paris Saint-Germain’s Gianluigi Donnarumma claims the top spot with an impressive score of 95.5 out of 100, while Real Madrid’s Thibaut Courtois finds himself in third position. Perhaps most surprisingly, Atletico Madrid’s star goalkeeper Jan Oblak doesn’t feature in the ranking at all.

In Short

The science behind goalkeeper rankings

The CIES Football Observatory, established in 2005 by Dr. Raffaele Poli and Dr. Loïc Ravenel in Neuchâtel, Switzerland, has developed a sophisticated methodology to evaluate goalkeeper performance. Their system assigns a score out of 100 based on multiple factors including match results and the deviation of save percentage in domestic leagues compared to expected values.

Only goalkeepers who demonstrate a positive difference in save percentage compared to their expected performance appear in the ranking. Additionally, keepers must have played a minimum of 20 league matches over the past 365 days to qualify for consideration. This rigorous approach ensures that the ranking reflects consistent performance rather than occasional brilliance.

The methodology specifically accounts for the defensive strength of each team and the quality of opponents faced. This explains why a goalkeeper from a team with less defensive support might rank higher than one playing behind a stronger defensive line. When analyzing football statistics for predictive purposes, these nuanced factors often prove crucial for making informed decisions.

Statistical analysis has revolutionized how we evaluate player performance across all positions, but perhaps nowhere is this more evident than with goalkeepers. Traditional metrics like clean sheets often fail to capture the true value of a goalkeeper’s contributions, especially when playing for teams that face numerous high-quality shots.

Surprising leaders and notable absences

Donnarumma’s position at the top might raise eyebrows among followers of European football. The Italian shot-stopper scored 95.5 points, with Inter Milan’s Yann Sommer claiming second place at 91.7 points. Real Madrid’s Thibaut Courtois, widely considered by many to be the world’s finest goalkeeper, ranks third with 88 points.

According to the data, Courtois faces more challenging opponents than both Donnarumma and Sommer (difficulty rating of 0.96 compared to 0.90 and 0.94, respectively). However, the Belgian international earns fewer points and has a lower save percentage deviation from expected values. Donnarumma registers 2.64 points with a +4.40% save deviation, Sommer achieves 2.31 points with +3.83%, while Courtois records 2.18 points with a +3.05% deviation.

One notable absence from the list is Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak. The Slovenian goalkeeper has consistently been rated among the world’s elite for several years, making his omission particularly surprising. This exclusion might fuel debates about the methodology’s ability to capture the full spectrum of goalkeeper qualities, especially those that aren’t purely statistical.

Chelsea’s Robert Sánchez secures sixth place with 84.1 points, while his compatriot Kepa ranks 17th with 80.8 points. Spanish football continues to produce exceptional goalkeeping talent, which has been evident in La Liga MX where Spanish influences have contributed to elevating the league’s defensive standards. Within La Liga itself, Rayo Vallecano’s Augusto Batalla (76.2), Huesca’s Dani Jiménez (71.9), and Racing’s Jokin Ezkieta (66.5) all feature in the extended ranking.

Global talent distribution in elite goalkeeping

The top 10 goalkeeper ranking reveals interesting patterns about where elite goalkeeping talent is currently distributed. Eight of the top 10 come from Europe’s “Big Five” leagues (England, Spain, Germany, Italy, and France), emphasizing these competitions’ continued dominance in developing and attracting world-class talent.

Only two goalkeepers from outside these major leagues break into the top 10: 23-year-old Russian Stanislav Agkatsev from FK Krasnodar in fourth place (87.4 points) and veteran Brazilian João Ricardo from Fortaleza EC, who secures eighth position with 83.7 points. Interestingly, these two outsiders register the highest save percentage deviations relative to expected values among the elite group.

German Bundesliga representation is particularly strong with three goalkeepers in the top 10: RB Leipzig’s Péter Gulácsi (seventh, 83.9 points), Borussia Mönchengladbach’s Moritz Nicolás (ninth, 83.3 points), and FSV Mainz 05’s Robin Zentner (tenth, 82.2 points). This cluster of German league goalkeepers suggests the competition may place particular emphasis on this specialized position.

The Premier League contributes two representatives with Brentford’s Mark Flekken (fifth, 85.9 points) and Chelsea’s Robert Sánchez (sixth, 84.1 points). As the financial gap between leagues continues to widen, tracking goalkeeper performance across different competition levels becomes increasingly valuable for identifying undervalued talent.

The CIES Football Observatory has established itself as a global authority in statistical football analysis, collaborating with organizations like FIFA, UEFA, and top clubs including Atletico Madrid, Arsenal, Juventus, and Ajax. Their research encompasses transfer market dynamics, technical performance analysis, and player demographics, making their goalkeeper ranking part of a comprehensive approach to quantifying football excellence through data rather than subjective assessment.