Real Madrid’s struggle : analyzing the consecutive defeats that shook the Spanish giants

The Real Madrid of Carlo Ancelotti has become acquainted with defeat in a way that was unimaginable just a season ago. After suffering only two losses throughout the entire 2023-2024 campaign, the Spanish giants have already accumulated eleven defeats this season, with more than two months of competition still ahead. This alarming trend has put their aspirations for both La Liga and Champions League titles in serious jeopardy.

In Short

From invincible to vulnerable: Madrid’s shocking downfall

The contrast between Real Madrid’s current form and their dominant performance last season couldn’t be more stark. During the 2023-2024 season, Los Blancos only suffered two defeats, both against city rivals Atlético Madrid. One had minimal impact as Ancelotti’s men secured La Liga with remarkable authority, while the other cost them the Copa del Rey title, preventing a clean sweep of all competitions.

Fast forward to the present day, and Madrid’s vulnerability has become painfully evident. Their recent back-to-back losses have sent shockwaves through the fanbase. The 1-3 defeat to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium on April 8, 2025, has left their Champions League hopes hanging by a thread. This setback came just days after a stunning 2-3 home loss to Valencia in La Liga on April 5, which widened the gap with leaders Barcelona to four points.

Statistical analysis reveals a troubling pattern for those who follow the team closely. Madrid’s defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly, conceding multiple goals in eight of their eleven defeats this season. For bettors and analysts alike, this defensive inconsistency presents a dramatic shift from the rock-solid backline that was fundamental to their success last year.

Even after their impressive 2-1 victory against Villarreal earlier in the season, few could have predicted such a dramatic decline in form. That performance against the Yellow Submarine had showcased their resilience and quality, qualities that have been largely absent in recent matches.

European struggles unprecedented for the champions

The Champions League has historically been Real Madrid’s playground, with the club boasting a record 14 titles. However, this season tells a different story. The reigning European champions have lost an astonishing five matches out of thirteen played in the competition: three during the league phase (against Lille, AC Milan, and Liverpool) and two in the knockout stages.

Their European campaign has resembled a rollercoaster rather than the methodical march to glory fans have grown accustomed to. While they managed to overcome Atlético Madrid in a penalty shootout despite losing the match, their defeat to Arsenal has left them requiring nothing short of a miracle at the Santiago Bernabéu in the return leg.

Advanced performance metrics suggest this European struggle isn’t merely bad luck. Madrid’s expected goals differential has deteriorated significantly compared to last season, indicating a systematic problem rather than isolated incidents. Their pressing intensity has dropped by nearly 15% in key matches, allowing opponents to build attacks with greater ease.

For teams preparing to face Madrid in knockout competitions, the blueprint for success has become increasingly clear – high-intensity pressing and quick transitions can expose their defensive vulnerabilities. The sophisticated algorithms now predict a less than 30% chance of Madrid overturning the deficit against Arsenal, a sobering reality for a club accustomed to European comebacks.

Domestic disappointments mounting

In La Liga, Madrid’s five defeats this season – equal to their Champions League tally – have undermined their title defense. The most recent loss against Valencia at the Bernabéu was particularly damaging, as it allowed Barcelona to extend their lead at the top of the table to four points with limited matches remaining.

Another significant blow came in January 2025, when Barcelona inflicted a humiliating 5-2 defeat on Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup final in Riyadh. In just two matches this season, Barcelona has scored nine goals against their archrivals, establishing a clear psychological edge ahead of their upcoming encounters in the Copa del Rey final on April 26 and in La Liga on May 11.

Historical data shows that Madrid has not experienced such domestic fragility since the turbulent 2018-2019 season, when under the consecutive management of Julen Lopetegui, Santiago Solari, and the returning Zinedine Zidane, they suffered an astonishing 18 defeats. Current projections suggest they might approach this unwanted record if their form doesn’t improve dramatically.

The situation has created unprecedented value propositions in the betting markets. Teams facing Madrid are now given substantially better odds than in previous seasons, reflecting the growing belief that the Spanish giants are no longer the intimidating force they once were. Data-driven betting systems have identified a clear pattern of vulnerability, particularly in matches following high-intensity Champions League encounters.

The road ahead for Ancelotti’s men

With crucial fixtures against Barcelona in both the Copa del Rey final and La Liga, plus the second leg against Arsenal in the Champions League, Madrid’s season stands at a pivotal juncture. Their ability to overcome this streak of defeats will define their campaign and potentially Carlo Ancelotti’s future at the club.

The Italian manager appeared visibly dejected after the Arsenal defeat, perhaps recognizing that his team’s mental fortitude has been severely tested. Recovery from such consecutive setbacks will require both tactical adjustments and psychological resilience from a squad accustomed to success rather than failure.

For Madrid to salvage their season, they’ll need to rediscover the defensive solidity that characterized their previous campaign. Statistical trends suggest that when Madrid concedes fewer than 1.5 goals per game, their win probability increases by nearly 70%, highlighting the critical importance of defensive improvement.

As the season enters its final stages, the data presents clear warning signs for the Spanish giants. Their string of defeats has transformed them from overwhelming favorites to uncertain contenders, creating a fascinating narrative for the remainder of the season. Whether they can reverse this negative trajectory remains one of European football’s most compelling questions as we approach the business end of the 2024-2025 campaign.