Premier League title race : When Liverpool can win and what’s next for relegation battle

The Premier League title race is reaching its climax with Liverpool firmly in the driver’s seat. Arne Slot’s men have established a commanding 12-point lead over Arsenal, while at the bottom, the promoted trio of Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester fight desperately to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. As football enthusiasts analyze every match and potential scenario, the mathematical possibilities become increasingly fascinating. Let’s dive into when Liverpool can clinch their 20th league title and what needs to happen for relegation to be confirmed.

In Short

Liverpool’s path to Premier League glory

Liverpool’s dominant position at the top of the table has transformed the title race into a mathematical exercise. With 70 points already secured and Arsenal only able to reach a maximum of 85 points if they win all their remaining fixtures, the equation is straightforward for the Reds. They need just 16 points from their available 27 to secure their second Premier League title under Slot’s guidance and equal Manchester United’s record of 20 league championships.

The goal difference advantage Liverpool holds over Arsenal (+42 compared to +29) means they could potentially clinch the title with as few as 15 points. In fact, the earliest date Liverpool could lift the trophy is April 13 when they host West Ham at Anfield. This scenario would require Arsenal to stumble in their upcoming matches against Fulham and Everton, while Liverpool would need victories against both Everton and Fulham.

Statisticians at Opta have calculated Liverpool’s title chances at an overwhelming 99.2%, with Arsenal given just a 0.8% probability of pulling off a miraculous comeback. This assessment takes into account both teams’ remaining fixtures and current form. If Arsenal were to lose against Brentford on April 12, it would leave them 18 points behind with only 18 points left to play for, meaning Liverpool would need just a single point against West Ham the following day to be crowned champions.

The upcoming Liverpool derby against Everton on April 2 could be pivotal in this title race, as a win would further solidify their position at the top. For fans tracking this exciting race, the Premier League weekend recap provides essential insights into recent performances that are shaping the outcome of the season.

Relegation battle intensifies at the bottom

While the title race might seem like a foregone conclusion, the fight to avoid relegation remains fierce with mathematical possibilities still in play. The recent 2-1 victory by Wolves over Southampton delivered a significant blow to the bottom three, creating a nine-point buffer between relative safety and the relegation zone.

Southampton’s situation appears most dire, as they sit 17 points from safety with only 27 points left to play for. Ivan Juric’s side now faces the ignominious prospect of not only relegation but potentially earning the unwanted distinction of becoming the Premier League’s worst-ever team. The current record belongs to Derby County’s 2007-08 squad, who finished with just 11 points. Southampton needs at least three points from their remaining fixtures to avoid this unfortunate record.

Beyond avoiding historical embarrassment, Southampton could become the earliest team ever relegated from the Premier League if they lose their next two matches while Wolves win theirs. This would create a 23-point gap with only 21 points remaining, mathematically confirming their return to the Championship before gameweek 32 – earlier than Derby County (2007-08) and Huddersfield Town (2018-19), who share the current record.

Leicester City and Ipswich Town, despite being nine points from safety, maintain slim hopes of survival. Both teams will need to dramatically improve their form while hoping that teams above them – particularly Wolves – begin to falter. Wolves could mathematically secure their Premier League status with 10 points from their next four matches, provided Leicester and Ipswich both lose their upcoming three fixtures.

Champions League qualification takes unexpected turn

Beyond the title race and relegation battle, the fight for Champions League qualification adds another layer of intrigue to this Premier League season. The traditional top-four finish remains highly competitive, with Liverpool and Arsenal looking secure but the remaining spots wide open. Just five points separate fourth-placed Chelsea from Bournemouth in tenth, creating a seven-team race for the final Champions League position.

The situation becomes even more interesting with England likely to receive an additional Champions League spot thanks to its strong UEFA coefficient ranking. This would mean the fifth-placed team – currently Manchester City – would also qualify for Europe’s premier competition. With just four points between City and tenth place, every team in the top half of the table maintains realistic ambitions of securing European football next season.

The performances of Liverpool’s goalkeeper Alisson, widely hailed as the top Premier League keeper, have been instrumental in their title charge. His crucial saves have preserved Liverpool’s advantage in tight matches, demonstrating how individual brilliance can influence the overall league standings.

Final stretch implications across the table

As we enter April, every match carries significant implications for teams throughout the table. Liverpool’s commanding position means they can potentially afford a few slip-ups, but Arsenal must maintain perfect form while hoping for an unprecedented collapse from the leaders. The April 27 fixture between Liverpool and Tottenham could prove decisive in finalizing both the title race and Champions League qualification.

For the relegation-threatened teams, each match represents a potential lifeline or the final nail in their Premier League coffin. Southampton needs an extraordinary run of results to have any chance of survival, while Leicester and Ipswich must target immediate points to reduce the nine-point gap to safety.

The mathematical permutations will evolve with each matchday, creating constantly shifting scenarios for teams at both ends of the table. As the Premier League returns from the international break, these crucial fixtures will rapidly determine which teams celebrate achievement and which face disappointment as the 2024-25 season reaches its culmination.