Fiorentina vs Empoli prediction : odds and analysis for Serie A matchday 34

The Tuscany derby between Fiorentina and Empoli arrives at a crucial moment in the Serie A season, with both teams fighting for entirely different objectives. While the Viola chase European dreams, Empoli struggles to escape the relegation zone. This Serie A matchday 34 fixture scheduled for April 27, 2025, at 15:00 local time, promises intense action as these neighboring cities (separated by just 30 kilometers) face off at the Artemio Franchi Stadium.

In Short

## Key factors shaping the Fiorentina-Empoli odds

Fiorentina enters this clash unbeaten in their last five matches, showing impressive form under coach Palladino. Their resilience has kept European qualification hopes alive, with advanced analytics suggesting they maintain a 62% possession rate in home fixtures. The Viola are not only competing for a top-six finish in Serie A but also progressing well in the Conference League, where a trophy would guarantee them a Europa League spot next season.

In stark contrast, Empoli’s struggles have reached alarming levels. The Azzurri haven’t tasted victory in their last 18 matches, accumulating just six draws and suffering 12 defeats during this disastrous run. Their offensive output has been particularly concerning, failing to score in three of their last five matches. Their defensive record on the road has been equally problematic, conceding goals in all of their last 14 away fixtures.

The bookmakers have positioned Fiorentina as clear favorites, with odds ranging between 1.80 and 1.87 for a home win. A draw is priced around 3.50, while an Empoli victory would return approximately 4.75 times the stake. The statistical models point toward a low-scoring affair, with the “No Goal” market (both teams not to score) offering value at odds of 1.74-1.76 across major bookmakers.

One particularly interesting betting angle concerns the first goalscorer market. Fiorentina has opened the scoring in three of their last four home games, and the “Fiorentina to score first” market is available at odds of 1.58-1.60. This reflects their tendency to start matches with attacking intent, especially against teams from the lower half of the table. The Serie A referee assignments could also influence the flow of this match, with officials typically allowing more physical play in derby encounters.

## Historical context and recent derby performances

While the current form favors Fiorentina, historical data presents a surprisingly different narrative. Empoli has maintained an impressive unbeaten streak in the last five encounters against their prestigious neighbors, collecting one win and four draws. This unexpected dominance extends to recent matches at the Artemio Franchi, where Fiorentina has managed just two victories in their last seven home games against Empoli.

Even more concerning for Viola supporters, Empoli has won their two most recent visits to Florence, claiming victories in both Coppa Italia and Serie A fixtures. These historical patterns demonstrate how derby matches often transcend current form, with the emotional significance frequently elevating the performance of the underdog. Since the 2018/19 season, Empoli has scored in 75% of their visits to the Franchi, showcasing their ability to find the net against their rivals regardless of form.

The regional rivalry adds another layer of complexity to this matchup. While Fiorentina represents the cultural capital of Tuscany with its rich history and European ambitions, Empoli embodies the fighting spirit of a smaller club consistently punching above its weight in Italian football. This intense weekend clash carries significant weight beyond the standings, with local pride creating additional pressure for both teams.

For Empoli, currently languishing in 19th position, every point could prove vital in their battle against relegation. Their defensive approach will likely focus on frustrating Fiorentina’s creative players while looking to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. The Azzurri’s disciplined defensive block has previously caused problems for Fiorentina, whose possession-based style sometimes lacks penetration against well-organized opponents.

## Tactical analysis and prediction for the Tuscan derby

Tactically, this match presents a fascinating contrast of styles. Fiorentina typically deploys a fluid 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes wide play and creative movement between the lines. Their technical midfielders aim to control the rhythm of the game, while their attacking players seek to create overloads in dangerous areas. The Viola have averaged 2.1 goals per home game in 2025, showcasing their offensive capabilities at the Franchi.

Empoli, under pressure to deliver results, will likely adopt a pragmatic 5-3-2 system focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their compact defensive block has been their primary strength, even during their winless run. The struggle to convert chances remains their Achilles’ heel, with their expected goals (xG) consistently exceeding their actual goal output by a significant margin throughout the season.

The key battle will unfold in midfield, where Fiorentina’s technical superiority meets Empoli’s tenacious work rate. If the Viola can establish control in this area, they’ll likely create enough chances to secure a victory. However, if Empoli can disrupt their rhythm and force Fiorentina into errors, they might extend their impressive derby record.

Weather conditions for Sunday’s match forecast temperatures around 21°C with minimal wind, providing ideal playing conditions at the Artemio Franchi. This should benefit Fiorentina’s technical approach, allowing them to implement their possession game without environmental hindrances. For viewers unable to attend, Serie A streaming options will make this compelling Tuscan derby accessible to football fans worldwide.

Based on current form, statistical indicators, and the high stakes involved, a narrow Fiorentina victory seems the most probable outcome. Advanced predictive models suggest a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely result, with the “No Goal” market offering particular value for those looking to place informed wagers on this crucial Serie A encounter.