The Fine Margin Era: Liverpool, Arsenal, and the VAR Lottery
As the 2025/26 Premier League season enters its decisive final third, the tension has moved from the training grounds to the screens of Stockley Park. Monday’s headlines are dominated by Alexis Mac Allister’s double-brush with the VAR monitors during Liverpool’s grueling encounter with Nottingham Forest. While the immediate discourse focuses on the subjectivity of ‘clear and obvious,’ a broader analytical lens reveals a more significant trend: we are witnessing a title race where the technical quality of the players is being matched—and occasionally overshadowed—by the officiating lottery. In a season where Arsenal and Liverpool are separated by the thinnest of partitions, these localized dramas are no longer just talking points; they are the architects of the final standings.
The Mac Allister Paradox: Control vs. Chaos
In the current tactical setup of 2026, Alexis Mac Allister has evolved into the definitive ‘metronome’ of the post-Klopp era. His role against Nottingham Forest was a microcosm of Liverpool’s season: a blend of high-risk defensive recovery and elite ball progression. The two VAR interventions—one involving a potential red card challenge and another a contested penalty shout—highlight the precarious nature of his role. When Mac Allister is neutralized by either tactical marking or officiating controversy, Liverpool’s transition from defense to attack stutters. This dependency is something Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal exploited in their resounding 4-1 North London Derby win over Tottenham this past weekend.
Historically, title races were won by teams that could ‘out-play’ the referee’s mistakes. The great Manchester City and Liverpool sides of 2018-2022 often operated with such a high statistical floor that a single VAR error was merely a footnote. In 2026, the parity at the top is so extreme that the floor has dropped. Arsenal’s clinical display against Spurs showed a team finding ‘grit’—as Arteta noted—but that grit is often a response to the psychological weight of knowing that one Mac Allister-style VAR review could derail a six-month pursuit of silverware.
The Three-Way Tug of War and the Carrick Factor
While the spotlight remains on the red half of Merseyside and the tactical maturity of Arsenal, the 2025/26 season has introduced a third variable. Michael Carrick’s Manchester United are currently enjoying a run of form that refuses to be dismissed as a mere ‘purple patch.’ By refusing to get ‘carried away,’ Carrick is channeling a stoicism that contrasts sharply with the emotional volatility seen in the Liverpool and Arsenal camps. This stability is becoming a weapon in itself. As Liverpool deals with the fallout of officiating drama, United are quietly accumulating points by minimizing their exposure to high-variance refereeing decisions.
Looking ahead, the ‘VAR drama’ we see today will likely be the defining characteristic of the 2026 finish. We are no longer in an era of 100-point seasons where a single foul is irrelevant. We are in an era of marginal gains where a midfielder’s toe-line or a subjective interpretation of a tackle determines the trajectory of a billion-pound industry. For Liverpool to maintain their edge over an increasingly resilient Arsenal, they must find a way to insulate their performance from the whims of the monitor. The Mac Allister incidents aren’t just isolated moments of bad luck; they are symptoms of a league where the gap between the top three is so small that the human element of officiating has become the most powerful variable on the pitch.
