Premier League : Diogo Jota to score as Liverpool aim for victory at Fulham
Liverpool’s pursuit of Premier League glory continues this weekend as they head to Craven Cottage to face Fulham. The Reds need just 13 points from their remaining fixtures to secure the title, and our data suggests Diogo Jota could be the key man to watch in Sunday’s clash. The Portuguese striker has been in exceptional form lately, scoring crucial goals that have maintained Liverpool’s impressive unbeaten run.
In Short
| Key points | Detailed insights |
|---|---|
| Liverpool’s impressive form | Maintain a 26-game unbeaten run in Premier League, remaining the only English team undefeated away. |
| Jota’s scoring prowess | Average a Premier League goal every 142 minutes, surpassing Owen and Fowler’s conversion rates. |
| Title race situation | Need just 13 points from remaining fixtures to secure the Premier League championship. |
| Tottenham’s tactical evolution | Shift from high-scoring matches to more controlled performances, averaging just 2.38 goals in recent games. |
| Manchester City’s defensive metrics | Conceded only one shot and 0.02 expected goals across 135 minutes of recent Premier League action. |
| Player availability impact | Chelsea averages 1.9 goals with Jackson compared to 1.25 without him, demonstrating his importance. |
Liverpool’s remarkable unbeaten streak heading into crucial Fulham clash
Under the tactical guidance of Arne Slot, Liverpool have developed into a remarkably resilient side, currently enjoying an extraordinary 26-game unbeaten sequence in the Premier League. This impressive streak represents the club’s second-longest unbeaten run in Premier League history and their fourth-longest across all league competitions throughout their storied existence.
The Reds’ away form deserves particular attention as they remain the only English team yet to taste defeat on their travels this season. This defensive solidity combined with attacking prowess makes their odds of 4/5 for an away victory at Craven Cottage appear quite favorable for those analyzing the weekend’s fixtures.
Our predictive models indicate Liverpool should handle this fixture comfortably, with many experienced bettors anticipating a controlled performance from Slot’s men. The calculated approach Liverpool have adopted in recent weeks reflects their position in the title race – they don’t need flashy performances at this stage, just professional execution and consistent results.
The advanced metrics support Liverpool’s dominance, with their expected goals creation remaining consistently high despite facing various defensive setups from opponents. Their ability to control games while maintaining attacking threat has been particularly evident in their recent outings, suggesting they should create sufficient chances against a Fulham side that has shown vulnerability against top-tier opposition.
Diogo Jota’s clinical finishing makes him prime scoring candidate
When analyzing potential goalscorers for this fixture, Diogo Jota emerges as the standout candidate based on both recent form and historical performance metrics. The Portuguese forward has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in front of goal, averaging a Premier League strike every 142 minutes for Liverpool – a conversion rate that surpasses club legends Michael Owen (143) and Robbie Fowler (159).
This statistical superiority supports the assessment that Jota may indeed be Liverpool’s most clinical Premier League finisher, even ahead of Mohamed Salah. His movement in the box and ability to capitalize on limited opportunities make him particularly dangerous against teams that attempt to defend deeply, as Fulham might opt to do.
Jota’s midweek winner further highlighted his knack for delivering at crucial moments, continuing a pattern of decisive contributions. His sharp instincts and positional intelligence make him a prime candidate to find the net at Craven Cottage, with odds of 100/30 for him to score in a Liverpool win representing potentially significant value.
Our performance data indicates that when Jota is operating at peak sharpness, as he appears to be currently, his goal conversion rate increases substantially. The underlying numbers suggest his expected goals per shot ratio exceeds that of most Premier League forwards, reflecting his ability to generate high-quality scoring opportunities through intelligent movement.
Premier league weekend forecast: key matches and betting insights
While Liverpool’s visit to Fulham captures significant attention, several other Premier League fixtures present intriguing betting opportunities for the weekend. The data points toward some interesting trends developing across multiple matches that merit consideration for those looking to maximize their returns.
Tottenham host Southampton in what appears to be a straightforward fixture on paper, but the underlying metrics reveal a fascinating shift in Spurs’ playing patterns. Despite “Ange-ball” being associated with high-scoring affairs, Tottenham’s recent eight matches have averaged just 2.38 goals per game – a significant decrease from the 3.6 goal average seen between August and January. This statistical shift suggests the under 3.5 goals market at 8/11 offers considerable value.
The Manchester derby presents another fascinating clash where City’s defensive solidity has become increasingly apparent. Across their last 135 minutes of Premier League action against Bournemouth and Leicester, they’ve conceded just one shot and an expected goals total of merely 0.02. This defensive resilience, coupled with United’s well-documented attacking struggles, indicates City could secure victory without conceding.
For Leicester versus Newcastle, the advanced metrics paint a concerning picture for the Foxes. They recently recorded the lowest expected goals figure of any Premier League side this season (0.02 against Manchester City), and their run of seven consecutive league defeats without scoring represents an unprecedented low in the club’s history. Newcastle’s Jacob Murphy presents interesting value in the assist market at 9/4, having registered eight assists in his last 20 starts.
The impact of key player availability on weekend predictions
Player availability continues to significantly influence match outcomes across the Premier League. Chelsea’s attacking metrics demonstrate this perfectly – with Nicolas Jackson in the lineup, they average 1.9 goals and 1.9 points per game, compared to just 1.25 goals per 90 minutes without him. His capacity to stretch defenses while simultaneously linking play makes him instrumental to Chelsea’s offensive system.
For Manchester City, the defensive partnership between Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol has shown promising signs of developing into a formidable combination. Their communication and positional discipline have contributed significantly to City’s recent defensive solidity, which could prove decisive in the Manchester derby.
Omar Marmoush represents another player whose form demands attention, having scored in three consecutive games and registered six goals in his last six starts. His willingness to attempt shots – evidenced by nine attempts against Leicester – makes him a compelling option in the goalscorer markets at 6/5, particularly if he assumes penalty responsibilities in Erling Haaland’s absence.
As April 6th approaches, these insights provide valuable intelligence for those looking to make informed betting decisions across the Premier League weekend. The combination of form analysis, statistical trends, and player availability offers a comprehensive framework for identifying value in what promises to be another fascinating round of fixtures.
