Ancelotti’s path to achieve a comeback in La Liga

Real Madrid’s pursuit of La Liga glory under Carlo Ancelotti faces a critical challenge as they trail Barcelona by three points with nine matches remaining in the 2024-2025 season. The Italian tactician must orchestrate a perfect finish to overcome this deficit, reminiscent of previous remarkable comebacks in Madrid’s storied history. Advanced predictive models suggest Madrid has a 37% chance of claiming the title, but these odds would significantly improve with a victory in the upcoming El Clásico on May 11, 2025, at Montjuic.

In Short

Historical precedents that inspire Madrid’s comeback hopes

The 2019-2020 season offers a compelling blueprint for Real Madrid’s current situation. Under Zinedine Zidane’s guidance, Madrid executed a flawless run of ten consecutive victories after the COVID-19 interruption to overtake Barcelona and claim the championship. Playing at the temporary Valdebebas facility, Los Blancos demonstrated remarkable consistency when it mattered most, securing the title before the final matchday despite a concluding draw.

Another notable reference point comes from the 2015-2016 campaign when Zidane took charge mid-season with the title seemingly out of reach. The French manager orchestrated twelve consecutive victories to close the season, pushing Barcelona to maintain perfection until the final whistle. Though ultimately falling short in that title race, the psychological impact of such a winning streak cannot be underestimated.

Ancelotti himself has experience with extended winning sequences, having guided Madrid to twelve straight league victories during the 2014-2015 season from matchdays 4 through 15. That streak was eventually halted by a 4-0 defeat at the Calderón, derailing what had been a promising title challenge. The data clearly shows that extended winning runs create tremendous pressure on league leaders, often causing unexpected stumbles.

The mathematical reality facing Madrid is straightforward yet daunting. Even if Ancelotti’s men win all remaining fixtures, including the crucial Clásico at Montjuic, they would still need Barcelona to drop points elsewhere due to the head-to-head disadvantage created by the 4-0 defeat in the season’s first meeting. This scenario mirrors exactly what sophisticated prediction algorithms have been highlighting in recent weeks.

Ancelotti’s strategic roadmap for the final stretch

Before the recent match against Leganés, Ancelotti emphasized the importance of the remaining 17 matches across all competitions that could define their season. With ten league fixtures (now nine), potentially five Champions League matches if they reach the final, and two Copa del Rey games if they overcome Real Sociedad, every contest takes on tremendous significance in their pursuit of a potential treble.

The Italian’s approach combines tactical flexibility with masterful squad management. Against teams employing low defensive blocks, Ancelotti has increasingly utilized overlapping fullbacks to create numerical advantages in attacking areas. This strategy has proven particularly effective in breaking down stubborn defenses like Leganés, whom Madrid defeated 3-0 on April 5, 2025, marking their third consecutive league victory.

Squad rotation will be crucial during this intense period. With key fixtures arriving every three to four days, Ancelotti must balance rest and rhythm for his star players. The coach has already demonstrated his willingness to make bold decisions, such as resting veteran midfielder Luka Modric during crucial matches to ensure peak performance when most needed. Monitoring player load metrics has become essential to this balancing act.

The upcoming El Clásico represents the pivotal moment in Madrid’s title pursuit. Statistical analysis shows that the outcome of this fixture has determined the champion in seven of the past twelve seasons. However, before this decisive encounter, Madrid must navigate potentially treacherous fixtures against Athletic Bilbao and Valencia, teams whose high-pressing approaches have troubled Los Blancos in previous meetings.

The decisive factors that will shape the title race

Madrid’s championship hopes rest significantly on their ability to maintain defensive solidity while maximizing offensive efficiency. Under Ancelotti, they have averaged 2.4 goals per match this season while conceding just 0.8 per game. Maintaining or improving these metrics through the final nine fixtures will be crucial to accumulating the necessary points total.

Barcelona’s remaining schedule offers potential stumbling blocks that Madrid must capitalize upon. The Catalan side faces challenging away fixtures at Villarreal and Real Sociedad, venues where they have historically struggled. Additionally, their continued participation in European competition could create fatigue factors that advanced performance models identify as significant determinants in late-season form.

The psychological component cannot be overlooked. Madrid’s experience in title races provides a measurable advantage in high-pressure situations. The club’s storied history of late-season surges creates both internal belief and external pressure on competitors. This mental resilience has repeatedly translated to points gained from losing positions, with Madrid securing 14 points from such situations already this season.

Ultimately, the data suggests this title race will likely extend to the final matchday. For Madrid to succeed, they must not only maintain perfect form but also apply consistent pressure that forces Barcelona into unexpected errors. The predictive models indicate a fascinating conclusion to what has already been an exceptional La Liga campaign, with the advantage potentially swinging on single moments of brilliance or rare mistakes.