Liverpool’s title hopes : Every scenario for the Reds to win Premier League this weekend

Liverpool’s dominance in the Premier League this season has positioned them tantalizingly close to lifting the championship trophy. With a 12-point gap separating them from second-place Arsenal and just five matches remaining in the 2024-25 campaign, Arne Slot’s men stand on the precipice of glory. The mathematical scenarios favor the Reds, who could secure their second Premier League title in five years as early as this weekend. Our statistical models have consistently pointed to Liverpool’s strength throughout this remarkable season, demonstrating why strategic observers recognized their potential even when the odds weren’t initially in their favor.

In Short

Liverpool’s commanding position in the title race

The current Premier League standings tell a compelling story of Liverpool’s exceptional campaign. After 33 matches, the Merseyside club has accumulated 79 points, winning 24 games, drawing 7, and losing only 2. Their goal difference stands at an impressive +44, having scored 75 goals while conceding just 31. This stellar performance has established a substantial 12-point advantage over Arsenal, who have played one additional match.

Liverpool’s journey toward this potential title has been particularly remarkable considering the transition they underwent last summer. When Jurgen Klopp departed after eight transformative years – during which he delivered their only Premier League title in the 2019-20 season – many experts questioned whether his successor could maintain the club’s competitive edge. However, Arne Slot, previously coaching exclusively in the Netherlands, has seamlessly continued Liverpool’s winning tradition while implementing his own tactical philosophy.

The data reveals a fascinating pattern in Liverpool’s approach this season. Their ability to control matches while maintaining defensive solidity has been crucial to their consistent point accumulation. This balance has made them remarkably difficult to defeat, as evidenced by having suffered just two losses all season. Such consistency is precisely what separates potential champions from merely strong contenders in a competition as demanding as the Premier League.

When analyzing the probabilities heading into this decisive weekend, the numbers heavily favor Liverpool. The combination of their significant points advantage and limited remaining fixtures creates a scenario where even a minor slip from Arsenal would seal the title mathematically. This position of strength allows Liverpool to approach their upcoming fixtures with confidence while still maintaining the focus that has characterized their campaign.

Weekend scenarios for Liverpool to clinch the title

The most straightforward path to glory for Liverpool comes this Sunday, April 27, when they host Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield. A victory would push their points total to 82, making it mathematically impossible for Arsenal to catch them regardless of the Gunners’ results in their remaining games. Even a draw would be sufficient to secure the title, as it would extend Liverpool’s lead to 13 points with just 12 points maximum available to Arsenal from their final four matches.

The timing of Sunday’s 11:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) kickoff against Spurs adds an element of theater to the occasion. Anfield will undoubtedly be electric as fans anticipate the potential coronation of their team as Premier League champions. Historical data shows that teams clinching titles at home typically perform with elevated motivation, with success rates significantly higher than their season averages. This psychological advantage could prove decisive against a Tottenham side still battling for European qualification.

Should Liverpool falter against Tottenham, their next opportunity would come on May 4 at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Even in this scenario, the mathematics remain heavily in Liverpool’s favor. A draw would be enough to secure the title if Arsenal fail to defeat Bournemouth that same weekend. Even if Arsenal win and Liverpool only manage a draw, the Reds would maintain a 10-point advantage with just three games remaining – still an insurmountable gap.

The probability models suggest Liverpool have approximately a 97.3% chance of securing the title this weekend, based on their recent form and the historical performance patterns in similar situations. These calculations factor in not only the point differential but also the respective form of both Liverpool and their nearest challenger. When teams establish double-digit leads at this stage of the season, they have historically completed the job over 98% of the time.

The path to celebration and remaining fixtures

Beyond the immediate scenarios for clinching the title, Liverpool’s remaining schedule includes several intriguing fixtures. After the potential title-deciding match against Tottenham, they face Chelsea (away) on May 4, Arsenal (home) on May 11, Brighton (away) on May 19, and Crystal Palace (home) on May 25. This run includes direct confrontations with two of the traditional “Big Six” clubs and provides ample opportunity for Liverpool to celebrate their achievement before their supporters.

An interesting traditional aspect of Premier League title victories is the guard of honor, where the opposing team forms two lines to applaud the champions onto the field. While not mandatory, this customary gesture is typically performed by the first team to face the newly crowned champions after they secure the title. In a twist of sporting fate, if Liverpool don’t clinch this weekend but do so against Chelsea, their next opponent would be Arsenal – creating the intriguing scenario of their closest challengers having to perform the guard of honor at Anfield on May 11.

The data from previous title-winning campaigns suggests that teams often experience a slight performance dip after mathematically securing the championship. However, with Liverpool potentially facing Arsenal in such a scenario, the competitive nature of the fixture and the historical rivalry would likely neutralize any motivational disadvantage. Furthermore, the home advantage at Anfield, where Liverpool has consistently outperformed expected goals metrics, would provide additional support.

As excitement builds toward what could be a defining weekend for Liverpool Football Club, statistical projections and historical precedents all point toward an imminent celebration on Merseyside. The question now appears to be not if, but when and where, Liverpool will officially become the 2024-25 Premier League champions, adding another chapter to their illustrious history.