Could Ligue 1 send eight clubs to European competitions next season ?

As the 2024-2025 Ligue 1 season enters its final stretch with just five matchdays remaining, an extraordinary scenario is emerging that could see France sending an unprecedented eight clubs to European competitions next season. While statistically improbable, this mathematical possibility has sparked excitement among football analysts and fans alike, especially those who closely monitor league positioning for betting purposes.

In Short

The exceptional scenario for French football’s European representation

The current European allocation for Ligue 1 stands at seven clubs: four in the Champions League (including one through qualifying rounds), two in the Europa League, and one in the Conference League playoffs. This already represents significant progress following UEFA’s recent reforms that granted Ligue 1 teams an additional Champions League spot. However, the prospect of sending eight French clubs to Europe hinges on a specific sequence of events unfolding in the coming weeks.

The lynchpin of this scenario rests with Olympique Lyonnais and their Europa League campaign. Currently engaged in a quarterfinal battle with Manchester United after securing a 2-2 draw at home, Lyon must not only triumph in the Europa League but also finish in a very particular league position. If Lyon were to win the Europa League, they would automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League regardless of their domestic standing.

The critical factor lies in where Lyon finishes in Ligue 1. For the eight-club scenario to materialize, Lyon needs to win the Europa League while finishing in what would normally be the first non-European qualifying position in the league. This position varies depending on the outcome of the Coupe de France final between Paris Saint-Germain and Reims scheduled for May 25, 2025.

How the Coupe de France impacts European qualification

The Coupe de France winner traditionally gains direct entry to the Europa League. If Reims claims victory in the final, Lyon would need to finish 7th in Ligue 1 for France to secure that coveted eighth European spot. However, if PSG lifts the trophy, the requirement shifts as the Parisian club is virtually guaranteed Champions League qualification through their league position. In this case, Lyon would need to finish 8th in the league while winning the Europa League.

PSG has dominated French football in recent seasons, with their regular Champions League qualification alongside Marseille and Lyon becoming almost customary. This year, however, the competitive landscape has shifted with teams like Brest performing above expectations, creating more unpredictability for those analyzing performance patterns.

Following Lyon’s recent 3-1 victory against Auxerre and Brest’s 3-3 draw with Saint-Etienne, the gap between Lyon (currently 4th) and the 8th position has widened to seven points. This makes the scenario less likely but not impossible. Lyon remains just four points away from Nice in 7th position, keeping their mathematical chance of landing in the precise position needed for this European qualification anomaly.

Permutations and European distribution possibilities

The distribution of French clubs across European competitions could take several forms depending on final standings. If Lyon wins the Europa League while finishing in a position that already qualifies for the same competition (5th or 6th depending on the Coupe de France outcome), France would boast five Champions League representatives but only one in the Europa League.

Even more complex is the scenario where Lyon qualifies for the Conference League through their league position (6th or 7th depending on the Cup) and simultaneously wins the Europa League. In this case, France would actually lose its Conference League representative as Lyon would be promoted to the Champions League.

For analysts tracking these permutations, the variables create fascinating betting opportunities. Advanced statistical models attempt to calculate the probability of these outcomes, though the interdependence of results makes this particularly challenging. The odds of all necessary conditions aligning perfectly remain slim, estimated by some experts at less than 3%.

The pathway to European maximization

To summarize the conditions required for France to send eight clubs to European competitions next season: Reims must win the Coupe de France, and Lyon must win the Europa League while finishing 6th or lower in Ligue 1. Alternatively, if PSG wins the Cup, Lyon needs to win the Europa League while finishing no higher than 7th in the domestic standings.

The remaining fixtures for Lyon will be scrutinized intensely, with their form indicating they might finish higher than the required position for this scenario. Their current momentum suggests they’re more likely to secure a direct European qualification spot through their league performance, which would eliminate the possibility of an eighth French representative.

The UEFA coefficient implications of having eight French clubs in European competitions would be substantial. Strong performances across multiple tournaments could significantly boost France’s standing in the UEFA country rankings, potentially leading to even more guaranteed spots in future seasons.

As the season reaches its climax, football enthusiasts will be watching closely, not just for the championship race and relegation battles, but for this rare alignment of circumstances that could make French football history with unprecedented European representation. While the probability remains low, the mathematical possibility ensures added drama to the final weeks of what has already been a compelling Ligue 1 season.