La Liga 2025 : Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid’s remaining schedule in the title race

The 2025 La Liga season continues to deliver unparalleled excitement as the title race intensifies with each passing matchday. Three giants of Spanish football—Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético Madrid—remain locked in one of the tightest championship battles in European football. Since matchday three when Hansi Flick’s Barcelona claimed top spot, only these three powerhouses have occupied the summit of the table. With just ten matchdays remaining, all three clubs maintain realistic chances of lifting the trophy, creating a scenario unmatched in Europe’s other major leagues.

In Short

The compelling three-way title race in La Liga

As of March 17, 2025, Barcelona and Real Madrid sit level on points at the top of La Liga, though the Catalan side holds a game in hand. Atlético Madrid remains very much in the hunt, trailing by just four points. This tense situation contrasts sharply with other European leagues, where title races typically involve fewer contenders with larger point gaps. Even Serie A’s exciting contest between Inter, Napoli, and Atalanta features a six-point difference between the contenders—while in Spain, it’s just four points with two teams tied at the top.

The statistical improbability of such a tight race this late in the season has captured the imagination of football analysts worldwide. Since the league’s inception, only twice before has a three-team title race remained this close with ten matches remaining. Advanced prediction models currently give Barcelona a 41% chance of winning, Real Madrid 39%, and Atlético Madrid 20%, highlighting just how finely balanced this championship battle truly is.

For those who appreciate the analytical side of the sport, these razor-thin margins create fascinating opportunities in the prediction market. The current form of each team—Barcelona unbeaten in their last 12 matches, Real Madrid showing tactical discipline, and Atlético demonstrating resilience despite recent setbacks—suggests this race could go down to the final matchday on May 25th.

The scheduling complexity adds another layer of intrigue. Both Real Madrid and Barcelona continue to compete on multiple fronts, advancing in Champions League while also pursuing domestic cup glory. Meanwhile, Atlético, following their draw with Real Madrid, now faces a less congested calendar after their European elimination, potentially giving them a stamina advantage in the final stretch of league matches.

Calendar challenges for the contending teams

The remaining schedule presents distinct challenges for each title contender. Barcelona’s fixture list includes crucial confrontations with direct rivals, most notably hosting Real Madrid on May 11th in what could be a title-deciding El Clásico. Their calendar also features challenging matches against Betis, Villarreal, and a season finale against Athletic Bilbao at San Mamés, a notoriously difficult venue for visitors.

Real Madrid’s path appears equally demanding with upcoming fixtures against Valencia at the Mestalla, a venue where they’ve historically struggled, followed by matches against Athletic Bilbao, Sevilla at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, and Real Sociedad. Carlo Ancelotti’s squad must navigate these domestic hurdles while simultaneously preparing for their Champions League quarterfinal clash with Arsenal, scheduled for April 8-9 (away) and April 15-16 (home).

Atlético Madrid, despite recent setbacks including their Champions League elimination, might benefit from a less congested schedule in their pursuit of the title. Diego Simeone’s men still face significant challenges with fixtures against Sevilla, Real Sociedad, and Betis, before concluding their campaign with a potentially decisive trip to Girona. The April 2nd Copa del Rey semifinal second leg against Barcelona could determine whether they’ll have an additional final to consider in their calendar planning.

For those tracking performance metrics across these critical fixtures, historical data shows that Barcelona typically maintains a 67% win rate during congested periods, compared to Real Madrid’s 62% and Atlético’s 59%. However, with Atlético now focused primarily on domestic competitions, their recovery advantage could potentially elevate their performance in these crucial final matches.

Key fixtures that could determine the champion

Several upcoming matchdays stand out as potential title-deciders in this thrilling race. The May 11th clash between Barcelona and Real Madrid at Camp Nou looms largest, with Atlético hosting Real Sociedad on the same weekend. This matchday could dramatically reshape the title landscape with just three rounds remaining afterward.

The penultimate matchday on May 18th features another set of crucial encounters: Real Madrid visiting Sevilla at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Atlético hosting Betis, and Barcelona welcoming Villarreal to Camp Nou. Historical performance indicates that teams typically drop an average of 4.3 points in the final five matchdays of a title race, making these late-season fixtures particularly significant.

The final matchday on May 25th could provide a dramatic conclusion with Real Madrid hosting Real Sociedad, Atlético traveling to Girona, and Barcelona facing Athletic Bilbao at San Mamés. The scheduling adds extra complexity as both Real Madrid and Barcelona might be preparing for a potential Champions League final six days later, potentially affecting team selection and focus.

April presents a particularly challenging period for all three contenders. Barcelona must balance their domestic campaign with Champions League quarterfinals against Borussia Dortmund, while still preparing for the Copa del Rey semifinal second leg against Atlético. Real Madrid faces a similar situation with their European tie against Arsenal interspersed between crucial league fixtures. Atlético, despite their European elimination, must maintain momentum through a series of challenging fixtures including Sevilla away and the cup semifinal against Barcelona.

For those following this exceptional title race, the combination of tactical approaches, squad management during congested periods, and psychological resilience will likely determine which team ultimately claims the 2024-25 La Liga championship. With margins this tight, advanced metrics suggest that performance in direct confrontations could prove decisive, with Barcelona currently holding a slight edge based on their superior goal difference in matches against fellow contenders.