Liverpool’s Premier League title race : When can the Reds clinch the trophy ?

As Liverpool continue their impressive run in the 2024-25 Premier League season, fans and pundits alike are eagerly speculating about when the Reds might clinch their second Premier League title. With a commanding 13-point lead at the top of the table, Arne Slot’s men appear to be on the brink of glory. Let’s delve into the possibilities and examine the factors that could determine when Liverpool secure their 20th top-flight championship.

In Short

Liverpool’s dominant position in the title race

Liverpool’s performances this season have been nothing short of exceptional. The Reds have lost only once in the league, demonstrating a level of consistency that has left their rivals trailing in their wake. Their recent 2-0 victory over Newcastle United further solidified their position at the summit of the Premier League table.

The gap between Liverpool and their nearest challengers, Arsenal, now stands at a remarkable 13 points. This substantial lead has prompted many to view the title race as a foregone conclusion. Gary Lineker, host of Match of the Day, aptly described the situation, stating, “It’s becoming less of a title race and more of a procession.”

Statisticians at Opta have calculated Liverpool’s chances of winning the title at an astounding 98.7%, with Arsenal given a mere 1.3% probability. Such a commanding position at this stage of the season is unprecedented in English top-flight history, dating back to the 1888-89 campaign.

Potential scenarios for Liverpool’s title triumph

While Liverpool’s lead appears insurmountable, the exact date of their coronation remains uncertain. Several factors will influence when the Reds can officially claim the Premier League trophy. Let’s explore some potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming weeks.

If Liverpool maintain their current 13-point advantage, they could secure the title with four games to spare, potentially on April 26 against Tottenham Hotspur. However, should Arsenal win their game in hand and match Liverpool’s results, the Reds might have to wait until the following weekend’s clash with Chelsea to seal the deal.

In a twist of fate, Liverpool’s first game as champions could be a home fixture against Arsenal, where the Gunners might be required to provide a guard of honor for the newly crowned champions. This scenario would add an extra layer of drama to what has already been an enthralling season.

The earliest mathematical possibility for Liverpool to clinch the title would be in the first week of April. This scenario would require the Reds to win their next three matches while Arsenal lose their next four, with other teams below them dropping points as well. However, this outcome seems highly unlikely given the competitive nature of the Premier League.

Historical context and record-breaking potential

As Liverpool edge closer to their 20th top-flight title, they have the opportunity to etch their names in the Premier League history books. The current record for the earliest title win in terms of games remaining is held jointly by Liverpool themselves (2019-20), Manchester United (2000-01), and Manchester City (2017-18), who all secured the championship with five games to spare.

While matching their own record of winning the title with seven games remaining (set in the COVID-interrupted 2019-20 season) seems improbable, Liverpool could still equal or surpass other impressive feats. Manchester United (1999-2000 and 2012-13) and Arsenal (2003-04) managed to clinch the title with four games left on the calendar.

The earliest date a Premier League title has been won was April 14, 2001, when Manchester United were crowned champions. For Liverpool to surpass this record, they would need to significantly increase their lead over Arsenal in the coming weeks. Regardless of the exact date, this year’s potential triumph would undoubtedly come earlier than their previous Premier League success, which was secured on June 25, 2020.

As the season progresses, fans will be keeping a close eye on the Premier League weekend previews to gauge Liverpool’s chances of securing the title in each upcoming fixture. The excitement is palpable as the Reds inch closer to their goal, with each match bringing them one step closer to glory.

Remaining fixtures and potential challenges

Despite their comfortable lead, Liverpool cannot afford to become complacent. The team still faces several challenging fixtures in the run-in to the end of the season. Key matches against Everton, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Arsenal could prove pivotal in determining when the Reds officially clinch the title.

Liverpool’s involvement in other competitions, such as the Champions League and the Carabao Cup final against Newcastle, adds another layer of complexity to their Premier League campaign. The congested fixture list means that the Reds will only play one league game in March, potentially impacting the rhythm of their title charge.

As the season enters its final stretch, Liverpool’s ability to maintain their focus and consistency will be crucial. Manager Arne Slot has emphasized the importance of taking each game as it comes, stating, “It is still a long way to go, 10 games. In March we only play one Premier League game – so we are not focused on the long term.”

While Liverpool’s lead appears unassailable, their rivals have not given up hope. Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta remains defiant, declaring that he would concede the title “over [his] dead body.” This determination from competing teams ensures that Liverpool cannot rest on their laurels and must continue to perform at their best to secure the championship.

As the Premier League drama unfolds, fans and analysts will be eagerly dissecting the Premier League weekend recaps to assess Liverpool’s progress and the impact of each result on their title aspirations. The coming weeks promise to be filled with excitement and anticipation as Liverpool edge closer to their long-awaited Premier League triumph.